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Conteporary Brokers
Global Weekly Report
Tea market report 9-13 July, 2012

North India and Sri Lanka continue to attract ongoing good demand, but in Mombasa and Jakarta a few cracks appeared and levels came generally down as buyers took a break from bullish sentiment. Though perhaps too early to tell, it seems that the current run will not go on unabated and we will see more normal market fluctuations in coming months. However, crop is still lagging behind, notably so in North India where the heavy monsoon rains hamper crop both quantity and quality wise. That said, it is also clear that buyers will not continue to pay higher prices week in week out. Price resistance grows and corrections will follow as buyers tend to hold off unlimited buying. Demand and supply will have to balance out, but the latter remains tight in the coming period.

North America basks in the sun and ice tea consumption is benefitting. Packers continue to operate in various origins, especially China. UK / EU were less active in Mombasa as were the Pakistan packers, who started strong but ended quiet, causing a rather large percentage of outlots In Kenya. In addition, Afghanistan and Bazaar jobbers find current prices hard to swallow and the contradicting crop and auction figures made them choose the side line. Ramadan is around the corner but it seems its effect on business is limited. Egypt buyers were also much less active. Better teas only shed a few but poorer sorts suffered. Sudan and Kazakhstan were the odd ones out, as they were looking to secure more teas. Somalia and Yemen continued much the same but with less pressure on prices. Russia showed some interest. In North India, the domestic packers and continental buyers lent good support on liquoring teas and as quality are peaking and offerings are rather tight, prices remain firm. In South India centres attracted good demand at irregular levels.

Heavy monsoon rains engulf much of Assam and crop in North India is suffering as of mid June into this month. The earlier shortfall of this year is persisting. South India crop is developing satisfactory. Kenya continues to experience dry and cool weather conditions with some light showers and crop dropped marginally. Malawi is still dry and cool and no sign of any July showers yet. Night temperatures are now at their lowest and crop is minimal. Sri Lanka has seen good rains on much of the island in combination with bright, sunny weather. Crop in low grown areas picked up and may result in healthy August offerings. Mid and high elevations witnessed a decline in intake so far. Indonesia is dry with overcast conditions on West Java, but bright weather in Central and East Java. Crop is low. The weather In Vietnam has been quite good with consistent rainfall.

This is quite true:

“Don’t let your victories go to your head, or your failures go to your heart.”

13 Jul, 2012
Acknowledgement: Vanrees & Co

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